Microsoft FY26: the risk score, 76 out of 100
Record revenue, the widest operating margin in at least a decade, and free cash flow that went backwards, all in the same fiscal year. Microsoft FY26 scored on valuation, financial health and growth: 76 out of 100. Plus the 4 lines that will move that score when Q1 FY27 lands.
Microsoft FY26, scored:
76 out of 100
Record revenue, the widest operating margin in at least a decade, and free cash flow that went backwards, all in the same fiscal year. Here is how Microsoft scores on the full-year filing, and the four things that will move that score when Q1 FY27 lands on 28 October.
💡 What is a risk score?
A risk score is a way of turning a messy set of filings into one number you can compare across companies and across time. This framework scores three pillars: Valuation (35%), is the price you pay reasonable for the earnings and assets you get; Financial Health (35%), can the company fund itself through a bad year; and Growth (30%), is the business actually getting bigger, and is that growth reaching profits.
Each pillar scores 0 to 100 where higher means lower risk. The weighted total maps to five bands: High Risk (0 to 24), Elevated (25 to 49), Moderate (50 to 74), Low-Mod (75 to 89) and Low Risk (90 to 100). Every metric is tagged LOCK (hard number from the filings), FLEX (moves with the share price) or WATCH (a forward claim or guidance that is not proven yet). This is an educational scoring exercise, not a recommendation of any kind.
One note on Microsoft specifically. Its fiscal year ends on 30 June, so FY26 Q4 is the June 2026 quarter and FY26 is the twelve months to 30 June 2026. Where this report says cash capex, it means additions to property and equipment from the cash flow statement: $115.9B in FY26. Management quotes capex on a basis that also includes finance leases: $145.3B in FY26. Both appear below, always labelled, because free cash flow can only be built from the cash line while the $145.3B is the better measure of what Microsoft actually committed.
A $357 stock became a $496 stock
Microsoft's weekly close peaked at $523.61 in October 2025, fell 32% to $356.77 by late March 2026, a period in which AI capital spending was being repriced across the sector, then recovered 39% from that low. The three marked weeks tell the story: the October top, the March bottom, and the week of the 29 July FY26 results, which closed at $464.72 against $381.70 the week before. One qualifier on that 22% weekly move: CNBC reported the shares up about 8% in extended trading on the night of the print itself, so the week captures more than the earnings reaction alone. Toggle the range to see how far the 2023 starting point of $225 puts all of this in context.
Weekly closing prices, TradingView export (BATS). Marked points: 52-week closing high $523.61 (week of 20 Oct 2025), 52-week closing low $356.77 (week of 23 Mar 2026) and the FY26 Q4 earnings week close $464.72 (week of 27 Jul 2026). Tap any point for the exact close.