Tesla Risk Score: 52/100 (Q2 2026)
Tesla just posted record revenue and its thinnest operating margin in years, in the same quarter. Run through the 3-pillar risk framework, it scores 52/100, Moderate. Here's why, and the 2 lines that decide where it goes next.
Tesla, scored:
52 out of 100
Record revenue, a fortress balance sheet, and a 1.4% operating margin, all in the same quarter. Here is how Tesla scores when you run it through a three-pillar risk framework.
💡 What is a risk score?
A risk score is a way of turning a messy earnings report into one number you can compare across companies and across time. This framework scores three pillars: Valuation (35%), is the price you pay reasonable for the earnings and assets you get; Financial Health (35%), can the company fund itself through a bad year; and Growth (30%), is the business actually getting bigger, and is that growth reaching profits.
Each pillar scores 0 to 100 where higher means lower risk. The weighted total maps to five bands: High Risk (0 to 24), Elevated (25 to 49), Moderate (50 to 74), Low-Mod (75 to 89) and Low Risk (90 to 100). Every metric is tagged LOCK (hard number from the filings), FLEX (moves with the share price) or WATCH (a forward claim that is not proven yet). This is an educational scoring exercise, not a recommendation of any kind.
A $481 stock became a $332 stock
Tesla's weekly close peaked at $480.84 in mid-December 2025, then gave back 31%. The two marked weeks tell the story: the December top, and the week of the July 22 Q2 print, when the stock closed at $312.89. The following week set the year's closing low at $310.90. Toggle the range to see how far the 2023 starting point of $113 puts all of this in context.
Weekly closing prices, TradingView export. Marked points: 52-week closing high $480.84 (week of 15 Dec 2025) and the Q2 2026 earnings week close $312.89 (week of 20 Jul 2026). Tap any point for the exact close.
The quarter in context
All figures from Tesla's quarterly shareholder decks filed with the SEC. Auto margin is shown excluding regulatory credits, the cleanest view of what selling cars actually earns. Tap any row and it charts itself below the table.
| Metric | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 | Q1 26 | Q2 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | 22.5 | 28.1 | 24.9 | 22.4 | 28.2 |
| EPS non-GAAP ($) | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| Operating margin (%) | 4.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| Auto margin ex credits (%) | 15.0 | 15.4 | 17.9 | 19.2 | 16.3 |
| Deliveries (k units) | 384 | 497 | 418 | 358 | 480 |
| Free cash flow ($B) | 0.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | -1.1 |
| Storage deployed (GWh) | 9.6 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 8.8 | 13.5 |
| Regulatory credits ($M) | 439 | 417 | 542 | 380 | 146 |
Default view: regulatory credits, the near-pure-profit revenue line other carmakers used to pay Tesla. It has collapsed since the US federal EV credit expired on 30 Sep 2025 and fuel-economy penalties were zeroed out. That prop is not coming back.
Where the money comes from
Automotive is still roughly 73% of revenue, but Services and Other, which includes the Supercharger network, insurance and repairs, is the fastest-growing line at +50% YoY with record profitability. Toggle to % of revenue to watch the mix shift.
Segment revenue per quarter. Source: Tesla Q2 2026 shareholder deck, SEC filing dated 22 Jul 2026.
How the 52 is built
Disagree? Score it yourself.
These are my pillar scores; the framework surfaces, you judge. Think the valuation deserves more credit for the AI optionality, or the growth pillar less? Drag the sliders and watch the score and band recompute. The weights stay locked at 35 / 35 / 30.