Microsoft Q3 - Risk Score: 82/100
Microsoft scores 82/100 on a three-pillar risk framework: reasonable valuation, fortress balance sheet, durable double-digit growth. Inside: deep-dive on each pillar, the Q3 FY26 results picture, and what a $190B AI capex plan actually means for positioning.
Risk Scorer / report
Microsoft Q3 - Risk Score: 82/100
Microsoft scores 82/100 on a three-pillar risk framework — reasonable valuation, fortress balance sheet, durable double-digit growth. Inside: deep-dive analysis on each pillar, the Q3 FY26 results picture, and what a $190B AI capex plan actually means for positioning.
Overall Risk Score
82
/ 100
LOW RISK
0 High Risk
100 Low Risk
Microsoft's Q3 FY26 result — revenue +18% to $82.9B, Azure +40%, AI run rate $37B — reinforced what the score already shows: an extremely strong franchise trading at a reasonable price. The risk isn't the business; it's the $190B calendar-year capex plan. Higher score reflects the strength: net cash, 48% operating margin, and a pricing model that compounds. The watchpoint is whether AI infrastructure ROI shows up in FCF over the next four quarters.
$3.08T
Market Cap
Mega-cap
$307B
TTM Revenue
+16% YoY
$16.79
TTM EPS
+24% YoY
$356–$555
52w Range
−25% from high
~28 Jul
Next Earnings
Q4 FY26
Share Price — 12 Month
May 2025 → May 2026 · Source: SEC filings + market data
@valuebyraph